Mexico is facing a complex dilemma after US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on countries that continue supplying oil to Cuba. As both a key trading partner of the US and a major oil supplier to Cuba, Mexico is caught between economic obligations and humanitarian concerns. Any decision could have serious consequences for its economy and diplomatic relations in the region.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum warned that halting oil shipments could trigger a severe humanitarian crisis in Cuba, affecting hospitals, food supplies, and other essential services. In 2025, Mexico supplied nearly 44% of Cuba’s foreign oil needs, making its role vital for the island’s energy security.
Sheinbaum emphasized that Mexico will engage in dialogue with the US to clarify the scope of the tariffs and explore alternative ways to help Cuba without risking punitive measures. She also stressed that the state-owned company Pemex makes Mexico’s oil export decisions independently and that no external pressure should dictate them.
Rising Diplomatic Tensions
The Trump administration has framed Cuba as a national security threat, citing its alliances and activities with countries and groups the US considers hostile. Trump signed an executive order declaring a “national emergency” and threatening tariffs on nations supplying oil to Cuba.
11 dead, 12 wounded after cartel gunmen attack football match in central Mexico
Within his cabinet, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has supported pressuring Cuba. This reflects long-standing US efforts to influence the socialist island. Washington claims Cuba hosts foreign military and intelligence operations. It says the island provides safe havens to groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. The US also argues Cuba spreads communist ideology in ways it considers destabilizing.
Cuban authorities strongly condemned the US move. President Miguel Díaz-Canel called the threats an attempt to “suffocate” the Cuban economy under an “empty pretext.” Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez described the measure as coercive. He warned it could lead to extreme living conditions for ordinary citizens.
Cuba is already facing daily blackouts and fuel shortages. Essential services, including transportation and energy-dependent media, are interrupted. Traffic lights often fail at major intersections. Government-run radio and TV stations sometimes suspend broadcasting. Hospitals must ration fuel for generators. Both leaders said the tariffs would mostly harm civilians. They argued it would worsen hardships caused by existing US sanctions.
Regional Impact: Mexico and Venezuela
Mexico is not the only nation facing pressure. Venezuela, previously led by Nicolas Maduro, supplied more than a third of Cuba’s oil needs until recent disruptions following US military actions.
Acting President Delcy Rodriguez has complied with several US demands, including opening the oil sector to foreign companies and releasing detained US citizens, but remains limited in resisting Washington’s pressure. Despite this, Venezuela has condemned the executive order, calling it a violation of international trade principles and expressing solidarity with Cuba.
Mexico transfers 37 cartel members to US as pressure grows, bringing total transfers this year to 92
For Mexico, the situation is particularly complicated. While Sheinbaum emphasized the country’s sovereignty over its oil exports, she also acknowledged the potential consequences of defying the US, a major economic partner.
Mexican officials are pursuing diplomatic channels to seek clarification on the tariffs while also exploring ways to ensure Cuba receives enough energy supplies to avoid further humanitarian hardship. Both Mexico and Venezuela are balancing the risk of economic penalties from the US against the urgent needs of millions of Cubans who depend on consistent energy access.
Daily Struggles for Cubans
The immediate effects of these tensions are most visible to Cuban citizens. Blackouts are becoming longer and more frequent, leaving entire neighborhoods in darkness for hours each night. Long lines form at gas stations as fuel supplies dwindle, and public transport is disrupted.
Hospitals face challenges running essential medical equipment, and many government offices and media outlets suspend operations due to energy shortages. These hardships highlight the human impact of geopolitical decisions made far from the island.
Cuban leaders argue that US measures amount to coercion and an attempt to impose economic control over the island, further straining an already fragile energy sector. Meanwhile, Sheinbaum and other Mexican officials are stressing diplomatic solutions to prevent a humanitarian disaster.
France intercepts Russian oil tanker Grinch as sanctions crackdown intensifies
The situation highlights the high stakes in Latin America. Decisions by powerful countries like the US affect the daily lives of millions.
Mexico’s oil supply is crucial to Cuba. Venezuela’s contributions are disrupted. Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs add more pressure. The US calls its actions national security measures. Cuba and its allies see them as coercive economic pressure. They warn this could worsen living conditions for ordinary citizens.