Just days before Romanians head to the polls for the second round of the presidential election on Sunday, May 18, the final major opinion survey shows a race that is still too close to call. The AtlasIntel poll, conducted between May 13 and 15, reveals a razor-thin lead for Nicușor Dan over George Simion—only 0.9%.
According to the results, Nicușor Dan holds 48.7% of voting intentions, while George Simion follows closely with 47.8%. The difference is smaller than the poll’s margin of error of ±1 percentage point, making the lead statistically insignificant. The survey was based on responses from 5,628 people and also includes Romanians living abroad.
The same polling firm reported just three days earlier that both candidates were tied at 48.2%. Since then, Dan has gained slightly, and Simion has dipped. But both remain locked in a high-stakes competition where even small shifts could be decisive.
Additionally, 1.8% of respondents said they plan to cast a null vote, and 1.7% remain undecided.
Regional Support Patterns Show a Divided Electorate
The poll provides a clearer picture of how voters are split by region and abroad. George Simion enjoys strong backing in Moldova, where he is credited with 56.9% support. Meanwhile, Nicușor Dan leads in Transylvania with 55.2%.
Greenland Election Results Shakes Denmark and Blow to Trump’s Expansion
In the Bucharest-Ilfov region, Dan is also ahead, with 48.6% to Simion’s 43.9%. In Muntenia, the numbers are very close, with Dan at 49% and Simion at 48%.
For voters outside Romania, the diaspora appears to favor Nicușor Dan this time, giving him 52.3%, while Simion is at 47.5%. This is a major shift from the first round of the election, when Simion secured nearly 61% of the diaspora vote and Dan only 25.61%. Those earlier votes were spread among more candidates, but most of the others are now out of the race.
Polling Errors from the First Round Still Fresh
The current survey is attracting attention not only because of the tight numbers, but also because of how the same polling firms performed in the first round of voting. AtlasIntel, which correctly forecasted previous local election results in Bucharest, underestimated Simion’s support in its last pre-first-round poll. It gave him 30.2%, while he ended up winning the round with about 41%.
A poll commissioned earlier by Dan’s camp through Verifield came closer, placing Simion at 35%. The largest gap came from a CURS poll, which had Simion at just 26%—15 points below his actual result.
Analysts, including Andrei Roman, the head of AtlasIntel, explained that voter behavior shifted suddenly before and during the election. Roman pointed out that part of the electorate, particularly those initially leaning toward Crin Antonescu, may have swung toward Simion after a controversy involving leaked photos and political infighting.
Fake News Tsunami Hits Canada Days Before Election — Deepfakes and Crypto Scams Flood Facebook
According to Roman, this late momentum resembled the surge once seen for Călin Georgescu, another candidate from a previous race. He emphasized that Simion’s support increased sharply on election day itself.