The Mexican government killed Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera, leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. This is a major victory for President Claudia Sheinbaum but comes with serious risks. El Mencho had a $15 million bounty from the U.S. He oversaw fentanyl trafficking to the U.S. and other violent crimes. His death, aided by U.S. intelligence, has created a power vacuum. Experts warn this could spark further violence.
Violent Chaos Erupts After El Mencho’s Death
Immediately after news of El Mencho’s death, the CJNG launched a violent reaction across the country. Members set fire to cars, shops, and banks, while blocking approximately 250 roads in 20 different states. In Jalisco alone, 25 National Guard officers were killed in clashes with cartel members.
Although the initial wave of violence has eased, security experts warn that the threat remains. Past experiences have shown that when a cartel loses its leader, rival factions often fight for control, sometimes causing even more chaos. For instance, in northern Mexico, the Sinaloa cartel has been in a bloody civil war after the capture of one of its leaders.
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Omar García Harfuch, Mexico’s security minister, has said that the government is “prepared for any kind of reaction or restructuring” by the cartel. The military remains heavily deployed in Jalisco and surrounding areas to prevent further escalation.
Sheinbaum Moves Away From “Hugs Not Bullets”
Claudia Sheinbaum, who became president in 2024, initially campaigned against a direct confrontation with gangs. She criticized right-wing parties for advocating a “war against narcos” and supported the “hugs not bullets” approach of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, which focused on addressing the root causes of crime rather than violent crackdowns.
However, since taking office, Sheinbaum has quietly moved away from this policy. Under her leadership, arrests have increased dramatically, drug seizures have soared, and extraditions of high-level cartel members to the U.S. have expanded. According to official government reports, security forces have arrested 29,000 people for serious crimes and seized 3.5 million fentanyl pills.
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García Harfuch, who survived a 2020 assassination attempt by CJNG members when he was police chief in Mexico City, has been instrumental in this crackdown. He has overseen the extradition of 92 senior cartel members and has expanded the country’s intelligence capabilities.
“This operation has received real recognition in Washington,” said Lila Abed, director of Mexico programs at think-tank The Dialogue. “But only time will tell whether the United States will continue pressing for more action.”
The Political and Security Gamble
While El Mencho’s death is a major blow to the CJNG, it also places Sheinbaum in a politically delicate position. Analysts say her biggest challenge is the deep corruption within political and law enforcement institutions, which allows organized crime to flourish. Many officials, including members of Sheinbaum’s left-wing Morena party, face accusations of links to criminal networks, though authorities have prosecuted few of them.
Local police forces remain underfunded, and illegal weapons continue to flow from the U.S., with authorities seizing roughly 23,000 firearms under Sheinbaum, about 80 percent of which came from across the northern border. El Mencho’s security team reportedly used some of these weapons during the recent clashes.
Experts caution that the CJNG’s structure makes it highly likely that the group will fragment into smaller, unpredictable factions. This could lead to an increase in homicides, disappearances, forced displacements, and economic instability. “A full-frontal offensive could unintentionally increase the very violence the government is trying to reduce,” security consultant Eduardo Guerrero told Mexican newspaper El Financiero.
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The president has also made headlines for arresting high-ranking officials accused of organized crime, including the mayor of Tequila, but critics note that few senior figures have faced real prosecution. Observers say the coming weeks will be critical in determining how effectively Sheinbaum can manage the CJNG’s succession process and contain potential outbreaks of violence.
The removal of El Mencho highlights both the strength and the precariousness of Sheinbaum’s security strategy. While her government has achieved major operational successes, the violent aftermath and potential for cartel fragmentation underscore the persistent dangers in Mexico’s fight against organized crime.
