Gulf States Fear Iranian Retaliation Over Israel-Iran Tensions
The Gulf states are making efforts to prevent a looming war between Israel and Iran. They have taken a strong stance by refusing to let Israeli planes fly over their airspace if Israel launches an attack on Iran’s oil facilities. This decision comes out of fear that if Israel strikes Iran, Tehran’s allies, or proxies, may target oil installations in the Gulf. This could cause major problems for the global oil supply.
Sources close to the governments of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar told Reuters that these countries have informed Washington of their concerns. Gulf leaders are worried that any conflict between Israel and Iran might drag them into a wider war. The Gulf countries also want to avoid being hit by Iranian missiles or drones.
Diplomatic Moves to De-Escalate the Crisis
To avoid being caught in the crossfire, Iran has urged its Gulf neighbors to stay neutral. According to Gulf and Iranian sources, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi visited Saudi Arabia this week to ask Gulf leaders to use their influence to stop Israel from attacking. Iran warned Saudi Arabia that their oil facilities could be in danger if the Gulf states offer any assistance to Israel in its strike.
An Iranian diplomat told Reuters that Iran sent a clear message to Saudi Arabia: if Gulf states allow Israel to use their airspace for an attack, Iran’s allies in countries like Iraq or Yemen might retaliate. These groups could target Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region with missile strikes.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political analyst, stated that Iran sees Gulf cooperation with Israel as a “declaration of war.” Tehran made it clear that allowing Israeli planes or missiles through Gulf airspace would be seen as an aggressive act.
Oil Supply in Danger
The potential for war is not just about missiles; it’s also about oil. Iran warned its Gulf neighbors that it might attack their oil facilities if Israel strikes Iran’s oil sites. This warning raises major concerns for the world’s oil market. If Israel disrupts Iran’s oil production, global oil prices could skyrocket.
Saudi Arabia, which leads the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has enough spare oil capacity to compensate for any lost supply if Israel attacks Iran’s oil fields.
But the situation becomes much more dangerous if Saudi Arabia or the UAE, both major oil producers, come under fire. Both countries were victims of past attacks from Iranian-backed forces, including the 2019 drone strikes on Saudi Aramco, which shut down a significant portion of the world’s oil supply.
This fear of an oil crisis has been a key topic in talks between Gulf officials and the United States. They want to ensure that the conflict doesn’t spread beyond Israel and Iran, which could put the global oil supply at serious risk.
Gulf States Signal to Iran: No Hostility
Despite their worries, Gulf countries do not want to escalate tensions with Iran. They are sending clear signals to Tehran that they pose no threat. Even though Gulf states have advanced defense systems, including U.S.-supplied Patriot missiles, they understand the limits of their protection.
A Gulf source stated, “We are trying to show Iran that we don’t support any aggression against them. This is a diplomatic approach to prevent a war that could destroy our oil infrastructure.”
Israel has other military options, such as mid-air refueling, which would allow its jets to bypass Gulf airspace. Military analysts also say Israel can fly over the Red Sea and Indian Ocean to reach Iran without passing through Gulf territories.
Israel’s Plans Not Finalised
At the moment, Israel has not made a final decision on whether it will strike Iran’s oil installations. According to Israeli officials, Israel is still considering its options, but they promise that any attack will be powerful and precise. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated, “Our strike will be lethal, precise, and above all – surprising. Iran won’t know what hit them.”
However, many analysts believe that Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, are hoping Israel chooses a more measured response. They are encouraging diplomatic solutions rather than military ones to avoid getting pulled into a missile war.
Global Impact: U.S. Elections and China’s Oil Supply
The potential for a large-scale conflict is causing anxiety worldwide. Iran is one of the biggest oil suppliers to China, and any interruption to its oil production could affect China’s energy needs.
The situation could also impact the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November. Some Gulf sources suggest that if the conflict causes oil prices to soar, it could hurt the U.S. economy. This would be a major problem for Kamala Harris, who is running against Donald Trump in the election. If oil prices reach $120 per barrel, it might damage her chances of winning.
Gulf countries believe the U.S. will pressure Israel to limit its actions to avoid an oil war that could harm the global economy. “The Americans won’t allow oil prices to explode,” said one Gulf source.
Gulf States Walk a Tightrope
Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are working hard to prevent a major conflict between Israel and Iran. By blocking Israel from using their airspace and signalling neutrality to Iran. They hope to protect their oil facilities and avoid becoming part of the crossfire. With the threat of a wider war looming, these nations remain vulnerable, and the risk to the global oil supply continues to be a pressing issue. For now, diplomacy seems to be their best option.