Portugal has been a strong ally of the United States for decades, using American-made fighter jets like the F-16 as part of its defense strategy. Currently, the country operates 20 F-16 fighter jets, a number that has decreased over the years from an initial fleet of 45.
Portugal’s Aging F-16s and the Search for a Replacement
These jets have served Portugal well, but they are aging, and by the early 2030s, they will no longer be fit for service. Initially, the F-35 was considered a top contender to replace the retiring fleet, offering advanced stealth capabilities and cutting-edge technology, but recent geopolitical concerns have cast doubt on this choice.
For years, Portugal planned to replace these jets with the F-35A, a state-of-the-art stealth fighter made by the American company Lockheed Martin. The F-35 is considered one of the most advanced military aircraft in the world, featuring stealth technology, powerful sensors, and the ability to carry a variety of weapons. Fourteen NATO countries have already decided to use the F-35, and Portugal was expected to follow the same path.
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However, recent global events and shifting political landscapes have forced Portugal to reconsider its decision. Instead of automatically choosing the F-35, the country is now looking at European-made fighter jets as possible alternatives.
Concerns Over U.S. Reliability in NATO
One of the biggest reasons for this shift is the growing concern over the reliability of the United States as a defense partner. In recent years, the U.S. has taken a tougher stance on NATO allies, demanding that they spend more money on their own defense. At times, American leadership has questioned the country’s role in NATO, making European countries uneasy about depending too much on U.S. military equipment.
Another major concern is the possibility of delays or restrictions on American-made weapons. Some defense analysts have warned that if a country relies too much on U.S. fighter jets, it could become vulnerable if relations with the U.S. government change. Some European experts have even speculated that the U.S. could remotely disable or restrict the use of F-35 jets in certain situations. While there is no confirmed evidence of such a “kill switch,” the idea has raised fears about long-term dependence on American technology.
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Portugal is not the only country facing this dilemma. Several European nations have started discussing whether they should focus more on European-made fighter jets rather than relying on the U.S. This shift in thinking has been influenced by reports of U.S.-Russia negotiations over Ukraine, which took place without significant European involvement. Some European governments see this as a sign that the U.S. might act in its own interests without fully consulting its NATO allies.
The Impact on Lockheed Martin and European Defense
For Lockheed Martin, Portugal’s reconsideration of the F-35 is a setback. The company has already delivered hundreds of F-35s to NATO allies and expects to deliver over 1,000 of these jets worldwide by 2025. However, if more NATO countries follow Portugal’s example and start looking at European alternatives, it could impact Lockheed Martin’s sales and long-term business prospects.
On the other hand, European fighter jet manufacturers could benefit from this shift. Countries like France, Germany, and Sweden produce advanced fighter jets that could serve as potential replacements for Portugal’s F-16s. If Portugal ultimately decides to buy European-made jets, it would be a significant step toward Europe becoming more independent in its defense industry.
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Portugal’s final decision on its fighter jet replacement remains uncertain, but the ongoing debate highlights broader shifts in NATO’s defense landscape. This choice is not just about selecting the most advanced aircraft—it reflects deeper concerns over alliance reliability, strategic independence, and geopolitical stability. For decades, NATO members have depended heavily on U.S. military technology, but recent uncertainties in American foreign policy have led some European nations to reconsider this reliance.
Portugal’s potential shift toward European-made jets signals a growing desire for defense autonomy, which could influence other NATO members facing similar concerns. If Portugal ultimately chooses a European alternative, it may set a precedent for reducing dependence on U.S. military hardware and strengthening Europe’s own defense industry.
