A new survey shows Southeast Asia remains closely divided between China and the United States when forced to choose a side. The findings highlight a narrow gap in preferences, shaped by economic ties, security concerns, and shifting global influence. The report also reflects changing levels of trust and a strong preference among many respondents for regional neutrality.
A Narrow Regional Choice Between Two Global Powers in Southeast Asia
A new survey shows that Southeast Asia remains closely divided when people are asked to choose between two major global powers. If forced to pick a side, 52 per cent of respondents chose China, while 48 per cent chose the United States. The result highlights a very narrow gap between the two countries.
The survey covered 11 Southeast Asian countries and included more than 2,000 respondents from diverse backgrounds such as media, business, research, government, and civil society. Overall, the findings suggest that the region is not clearly aligned with either power, but instead reflects a near-even split in opinion.
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The report also shows shifting trends over time. In earlier years, the United States had stronger support, while China has occasionally taken the lead in some recent surveys. The latest results show China slightly ahead again, but still within a highly competitive and balanced regional outlook.
Different Country Views Shape the Regional Picture
Although the overall result is close, opinions across Southeast Asia vary significantly from country to country. In some nations, support for China is clearly stronger. Large majorities in countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia prefer China when asked to choose between the two global powers. Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, and Timor-Leste also show a stronger preference for China in this forced-choice survey.
In these countries, economic relationships play a key role in shaping public opinion. China is seen as an important trade partner, with strong investment flows, infrastructure projects, and business opportunities. Many respondents believe that close economic ties with China support job creation, development, and long-term growth. This has contributed to a more favorable view of Beijing in several parts of the region.
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In contrast, several other countries show stronger support for the United States. The Philippines stands out with a large majority choosing the US over China. Myanmar, Cambodia, and Vietnam also show higher preference for the United States in comparison. In these countries, security cooperation, defense partnerships, and historical connections strongly influence public sentiment.
Regional conflicts and maritime tensions also shape perceptions, especially in areas where security concerns are more prominent. One country in the region shows nearly equal support for both China and the United States, highlighting how divided public opinion can be even within a single nation. Overall, the findings reflect a complex and mixed regional outlook driven by both economic dependence and security considerations.
Concerns, Trust, and Changing Global Perceptions
The survey explored how people in Southeast Asia view trust and concerns related to China and the United States. Regarding China, more respondents than in previous years now say they trust it to act in the global interest. Many believe China can contribute to global peace and economic stability, reflecting a gradual rise in confidence.
However, concerns remain. Respondents worry about political influence, interference in domestic affairs, and pressure through trade or economic power. Maritime disputes and regional tensions also continue to affect perceptions. At the same time, some view China’s strong economic power and leadership capacity as reasons it remains an important global partner.
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For the United States, overall trust remains slightly higher in many countries, but it has declined compared to earlier surveys. Many still see the US as a major military and economic power and a supporter of international rules. However, concerns are increasing, especially around tariffs, sanctions, and other trade-related policies that create uncertainty.
When asked about future relations, most respondents expect stability or mixed changes rather than major shifts. A large number also prefer not to take sides, supporting the idea that Southeast Asia should remain neutral and avoid alignment with either power. Many also believe ASEAN should strengthen unity to reduce external pressure. Overall, trust and concern levels continue to shift based on economic and geopolitical conditions.