Ukraine launched one of its largest incursions into Russian territory since the start of the war. Thus resulting in intense battles near a major natural gas transmission hub in Russia’s Kursk region. This marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between the two countries.
State of Emergency in Kursk
The acting governor of Kursk, Alexey Smirnov, declared a state of emergency in the border region. This action limits access to certain areas to manage the situation better. According to Russia’s health ministry, 31 civilians, including six children, have been injured, and five people have died. The authorities have not released information regarding military casualties.
Security Measures
In response to the incursion, Russia’s National Guard increased security around the Kursk nuclear power station and its four reactors. This heightened security aims to prevent any potential threats to critical infrastructure.
Ukrainian Advances and Russian Gains
In recent months, Russia has made territorial gains in Ukraine, capturing approximately 420 square kilometers (162 square miles) since June 14, according to Russian officials. However, Ukrainian forces launched a counterattack, targeting areas northwest of the border town of Sudzha. This town lies about 530 kilometers (330 miles) southwest of Moscow. Fighting continued through the night, indicating the seriousness of the situation.
Russian Response
President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of provoking the attack and called it a “major provocation.” Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of general staff, informed Putin that Russian forces had stopped an advance by around 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers. This number is more than three times what the Russian defense ministry reported earlier. Gerasimov stated that the advance was halted using airstrikes, missile and artillery fire, and reinforcements.
Ukraine’s Silence
The Ukrainian military has remained silent about the incursion. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy did not mention the attack in his nightly video address but encouraged Ukrainian soldiers to continue fighting and weaken Russian forces. Ukraine’s General Staff also did not acknowledge the incursion in their daily battlefield update. They did, however, report intensified fighting in the Sumy region, across the border from Russia’s Kursk region. The General Staff claimed Russian forces used aircraft, helicopters, and heavy weapons but failed to make progress and suffered significant losses.
U.S. Reaction
The United States expressed interest in understanding the situation but stated that it had no advance knowledge of the incursion. White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre mentioned that the U.S. is in communication with Ukraine regarding the incident. The U.S. State Department clarified that Ukraine’s actions did not violate existing rules on using U.S.-supplied weapons, which permit use in Russian border areas.
Gas and Energy Concerns
The fighting near Sudzha is important because it’s the last place where Russian natural gas goes through to Europe using a pipeline that also runs through Ukraine. This pipeline is called the Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline and it sent about 14.65 billion cubic meters of gas in 2023, which is half of all the gas Russia sends to Europe. Even with the conflict, Ukraine’s gas company said that gas is still being delivered to European countries like normal. However, the battles are a concern for the area’s stability, especially since the Kursk nuclear power station is nearby.
Strategic Implications
This incursion occurs at a critical point in the conflict, the largest land war in Europe since World War Two. Ukraine aims to demonstrate its ability to fight and maintain Western support, especially as the U.S. presidential election approaches. Former President Donald Trump, a leading Republican candidate, has stated that he would end the war, raising concerns about continued U.S. support for Ukraine.
Social Media Reactions
Russian military bloggers have portrayed the situation in the Kursk region as more severe than official accounts suggest. Some bloggers speculate that Ukraine may be opening a new front, and others hint at a potential Ukrainian advance on the Kursk nuclear plant. Meanwhile, Russian Telegram channels circulated unverified videos of shelled houses, contributing to the tension.
In previous incidents, forces identifying themselves as voluntary paramilitaries allied with Ukraine have penetrated the Kursk and Belgorod regions, prompting Russian troops to establish a buffer zone in Ukraine’s northeast. Both sides maintain that they do not target civilians in this ongoing conflict, which began with Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.