What a Trump Presidency Could Mean for the Middle East
With Donald Trump’s election victory, the Middle East is watching closely to see how his administration’s policies could impact the region. Known for a strong, sometimes controversial approach, Trump’s foreign policy may change the direction of the U.S. role in critical Middle Eastern issues. Key areas of focus will likely include U.S. relations with Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the role of international organisations like the United Nations.
Solidifying Support for Israel
Trump has historically shown strong support for Israel. During his previous term, he made landmark decisions, such as moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. These moves solidified his alignment with Israel but strained relations with Palestinians. Trump’s approach largely ignored Palestinian leadership, aiming instead to secure Israel’s goals directly. His administration’s “Peace to Prosperity” plan was heavily criticized for excluding Palestinian voices and defunding programs like the UN’s relief agency for Palestinian refugees.
In a new term, Trump is likely to continue his support for Israel and push aside multilateral approaches that involve organizations like the UN. His stance could limit the chances of a balanced peace plan in the region, as Palestinians may remain sidelined. This could make it challenging to address the Israel-Palestine conflict with a broad, inclusive approach.
Iran and “Maximum Pressure”
Trump’s approach to Iran has been clear and tough. During his first term, he imposed heavy sanctions and called Iran a “state sponsor of terrorism.” His administration withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, which was designed to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign aimed to weaken Iran’s economy, pushing it toward negotiation by cutting off resources.
If Trump resumes his presidency, he will likely continue this pressure, especially to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear capabilities. However, the strict sanctions and lack of diplomatic engagement might provoke Iran to retaliate through cyberattacks or other tactics. This could heighten tensions, leading to more regional instability.
Building Alliances: Abraham Accords and Saudi Relations
Trump’s previous term saw the creation of the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco. The accords marked a significant shift in Middle Eastern politics, promoting diplomacy between Israel and some of its neighbors. Trump has expressed interest in expanding these accords, possibly to include more nations, which could reshape alliances in the region.
In addition to promoting the Abraham Accords, Trump has maintained a strong alliance with Saudi Arabia. This relationship has been mutually beneficial: the U.S. has sold advanced military equipment to Saudi Arabia, while Saudi Arabia has supported Trump’s influence over global oil markets. Trump previously defended Saudi Arabia’s leadership, even amid concerns over human rights issues. His support for Saudi Arabia’s role in Yemen’s conflict led to criticism over worsening conditions in the region.
In a new term, Trump is expected to keep close ties with Saudi Arabia, focusing on oil and economic collaboration rather than diplomatic concerns. His partnership with the kingdom might aim to stabilise global oil prices and secure a steady energy supply, which could shape the global market.
Less Engagement with the United Nations
Trump has often been skeptical of multilateral organizations, especially the United Nations. During his previous term, he reduced U.S. involvement in several UN programs and used veto power to align UN policies with American interests. His emphasis on unilateralism over diplomacy reflects his belief that the U.S. should act independently, prioritizing its interests without relying on international cooperation.
Under a renewed Trump administration, the U.S. may further limit its role in the UN’s Middle East activities, focusing instead on direct influence. This approach could lead to fewer collaborative efforts in peace-building or humanitarian aid in conflict areas. Trump’s preference for “America First” might reduce the U.S.’s contributions to global initiatives, reshaping its leadership role in Middle Eastern diplomacy.
Balancing Power with U.S. Exceptionalism
Trump’s foreign policy often emphasises U.S. exceptionalism — the belief that America holds a unique role in global affairs. During his first term, he focused on policies that asserted the U.S. as a dominant force, acting outside of international agreements when they did not align with his vision. This strategy appeals to voters who want a strong national image, but it often distances the U.S. from alliances that rely on shared commitments.
In the Middle East, Trump’s emphasis on exceptionalism may mean that the U.S. takes more direct actions in areas like Iran’s nuclear ambitions or Saudi Arabia’s defense capabilities, rather than relying on joint efforts with allies. This approach could lead to swift, decisive actions but may also risk backlash if regional stability suffers.
Potential Challenges Ahead
Trump’s assertive approach may result in rapid policy shifts across the Middle East, but it could also bring challenges. Countries that feel pressured or sidelined might react negatively, potentially leading to increased tensions or conflicts. With Trump’s focus on specific alliances and issues, the region could see more polarizing policies that create new divisions.
Countries in the Middle East are watching closely to see how Trump’s decisions will impact the region. The outcomes of these policies could shape diplomatic relations, security, and economic stability for years to come. The new Trump administration’s path will likely reflect his past policies, emphasising strong alliances, independent action, and a focus on American priorities over global consensus. For many, this approach may bring uncertainty but also promises of decisive, direct leadership in a complex region.