Sudan, located in northeastern Africa, is a nation with a rich history and complex political landscape. It gained independence from British-Egyptian rule in 1956 but has since faced decades of conflict, authoritarianism, and economic challenges. Known for its diverse cultures and ethnic groups. Sudan has been a focal point of regional tensions and global interests. Especially due to its strategic location along the Red Sea and its significant oil reserves. Recent events, including the overthrow of long-time ruler Omar al-Bashir in 2019, have plunged the country into ongoing unrest. Drawing international attention to its geopolitical importance.
Understanding The Sudan Crisis and its Evolution
The Sudan crisis is the result of a complex history of colonial exploitation, ethnic and religious tensions, authoritarian rule, and ongoing power struggles. Each key event has contributed to the current situation, where the military and paramilitary forces are locked in a destructive conflict, with civilians bearing the brunt of the violence. The humanitarian situation is getting worse and there is still no apparent way to end the catastrophe.
Colonial History and Independence (1956)
Sudan was colonized by the British and Egyptians in the 19th century, with the British holding dominant control. The country was administered as two separate entities: the predominantly Arab and Muslim North, and the largely non-Arab, Christian in the South. This division unfolded ethnic and religious tensions in the country
Sudan had its own fight for independence. With the rise of Sudanese nationalism in the early 20th century, leading to increased demands for independence. Considering the nationalistic efforts of the citizens Sudan gained independence on January 1, 1956. But the transition from a colony to an independent state was challenging. Due to the deep-seated ethnic and religious divisions between the North and South. These divisions also became the root cause of the First Sudanese Civil war.
First Sudanese Civil War (1955–1972)
The primary cause of the First Sudanese Civil War was the central government’s attempt to impose northern Arab culture and Islam on the southern regions. As the Southern regions were ethnically and religiously distinct they rebelled against these impositions and marginalization.
The conflict began even before Sudan’s independence in 1955. The southern soldiers mutinied against the state. It was one of the longest civil wars in human history which lasted for over 17 years. The war has devastated southern Sudan, leading to around half a million deaths. This was a severe humanitarian crisis with millions of people displaced.
The war ended with the Addis Ababa Agreement, which granted the South considerable autonomy to govern themselves. Additionally to lessen North Korean meddling in the religious and cultural affairs of the South. But unfortunately this agreement left many issues unresolved and created a lot of loopholes. And not to any surprise this agreement was the setting stage for future conflict. After a decade of relative peace and stability the second Sudanese Civil War took place.
Second Sudanese Civil War (1983–2005)
This civil war was rooted within the issues of Southern Autonomy and the long drawn ethnic tensions. In 1983, President Jaafar Nimeiry, under pressure from Islamist factions in the North, abolished the autonomy granted to the South. He in turn imposed Sharia law across the country, and attempted to divide the South into three regions. These actions infuriated the Southerners, further increasing tensions.
The South, under the leadership of John Garang’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), took up arms again. The Second Civil War was even more brutal than the first, with over 2 million people killed and millions more displaced, which lasted for more than 2 decades.
After years of negotiation, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed, ending the civil war in the year 2005. The agreement provided for a referendum on southern independence, which eventually led to the creation of South Sudan in 2011. However, the CPA did not address conflicts in other regions like Darfur, leading to continued violence and instability.
Darfur Conflict (2003–2009)
The Darfur region in western Sudan is predominantly inhabited by non-Arab African groups. It had long been marginalized by the central government for its ethnic differences. So in 2003, rebel groups, including the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) and Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), took up arms against the government. In order to fight against the years of injustice, radicalisation and marginalization.
The government’s response to this movement was even more horrific. In response, the government of Sudan, led by President Omar al-Bashir, armed the Janjaweed, an Arab militia. These Arab militias carried out widespread atrocities and ethnic cleansing against the non-Arab population. These included heinous crimes such as mass killings, rapes, and displacement.
The conflict led to what the United Nations described as one of the worst humanitarian crises of the 21st century. An estimated 300,000 people were killed, and millions were displaced. The International Criminal Court (ICC) indicted Bashir for genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity, though he has not been tried.
Separation of South Sudan (2011)
As part of the Comprehensive peace Agreement CPA, a referendum was held in January 2011, where nearly 99% of South Sudanese voted for independence. And following this referendum on July 9, 2011, South Sudan became the world’s newest nation. This separation naturally came at a cost and dire consequences
The secession of South Sudan from Sudan had a profound impact on Sudan’s economy. As South Sudan took with it about 75% of the country’s oil reserves. This loss of oil revenue led to economic decline and increased political instability in Sudan.
The separation did not come with sustainable solutions to resolve issues like border disputes, particularly in the oil-rich region of Abyei. It was not successful in bringing lasting peace to either country. As of now both Sudan and South Sudan have continued to face internal conflicts.
Fall of Omar al-Bashir (2019)
Omar al-Bashir came to power in a military coup in 1989 and ruled Sudan for almost 30 years. During which his regime was marked by authoritarianism, human rights abuses, and economic mismanagement.
By late 2018, Sudan faced severe economic problems, including hyperinflation and shortages of bread and fuel. These conditions sparked widespread protests, which were initially over economic grievances but soon called for Bashir’s ouster.
Following months of unrest, Bashir was removed by the military in April 2019. After a Transitional Military Council (TMC) assumed power, demonstrators called for civilian governance.
Following discussions, the military and civilian officials came to a power-sharing deal in August 2019, which paved the way for the establishment of a Sovereign Council to supervise a 39-month transition to civilian government. But the power sharing agreement was never really successful and made way for the 2021 military coup.
2021 Military Coup
The power-sharing arrangement and the transition between the military and civilians was always tenuous. The military retained significant power, and tensions grew over the transition to full civilian rule.
And the military owing to its reputation did a military coup. On October 25, 2021, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the military, dissolved the civilian-led government and arrested civilian leaders. This included Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. The coup was met with massive protests, and the military responded with violence, killing dozens of protesters.
The coup plunged Sudan into deeper political instability, with ongoing protests demanding a return to civilian rule. International reactions were largely condemnatory, with many countries and organisations suspending aid and diplomatic relations with Sudan.
Current Scenario of Sudan : 2023 Civil War
Fighting broke out in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, on April 15, 2023. The conflict began as a power struggle between two military factions. On one side is the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the country’s de facto ruler. On the other side is the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group under General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti.
Origins of the Conflict
The RSF has its roots in Darfur, where it was originally known as the Janjaweed. Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s former dictator, created the group to crush a rebellion in Darfur over 20 years ago. The RSF quickly gained a reputation for brutal atrocities. In 2013, Bashir transformed the Janjaweed into a semi-organized paramilitary force, giving its leaders military ranks. The RSF was then deployed to suppress further unrest in South Darfur.
The current power struggle between Burhan and Hemedti can be traced back to 2019. That year, both the RSF and the military cooperated to oust Bashir. However, efforts to transition to a civilian-led government faltered, and many analysts predicted that a showdown between Burhan and Hemedti was inevitable.
Why Darfur is Central to the Conflict
Darfur is home to about 9 million people and is the stronghold of Hemedti. Many of the RSF’s fighters come from this region, especially from Hemedti’s Rizeigat community. The RSF has terrorized communities in Darfur for years, and much of the region is lawless. Recent reports suggest that the RSF is involved in ethnic violence against groups like the Masalits.
The RSF has invested heavily in controlling Darfur’s strategic assets. These include airstrips, mines, water sources, and major roads. If Hemedti’s forces face setbacks elsewhere in Sudan, he might retreat to Darfur. With tens of thousands of seasoned fighters, the RSF could make the region nearly impregnable.
Humanitarian Crisis
The conflict in Sudan has led to one of the worst humanitarian crises in recent history. The UN warns that the fighting could trigger the world’s largest hunger crisis. There are areas in Sudan where starvation is almost certain. The worst displacement catastrophe in history has also been brought on by the violence. Over 8 million people have experienced home displacement. Nearly 2 million have fled to neighboring countries, putting immense pressure on Chad and South Sudan.
In South Sudan, a lack of funds means that 3 million people facing acute hunger are receiving no assistance from the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP). In Chad, the situation is equally dire. The WFP warns that support for 1.2 million refugees in the country could end in April due to a lack of funds. Across the region, nearly 28 million people face acute food insecurity, including 18 million in Sudan, 7 million in South Sudan, and nearly 3 million in Chad.
Sudan’s 2023 civil war has plunged the country into chaos. The power struggle between Burhan and Hemedti has escalated into a full-blown conflict, with Darfur at its center. The human cost is staggering, with millions displaced, facing hunger, and lacking basic necessities. The situation remains dire, with no end in sight.
International Sanctions on Sudan
The UN, EU, and US have imposed sanctions on South Sudan due to ongoing conflict. The UN created the South Sudan Sanctions Committee in 2015, targeting individuals and entities threatening peace and stability. These sanctions include a travel ban, asset freezes, and an arms embargo, established by UN Resolutions 2206 (2015) and 2428 (2018). The EU also imposed sanctions in 2014, which are enforced through Council Decision (CFSP) 2015/740 and Council Regulation (EU) 2015/735. The US followed suit with sanctions under Executive Order 13664, freezing assets of those responsible for undermining South Sudan’s peace.
Sudan Geopolitical Importance: A Global Perspective
Sudan holds significant geopolitical importance for Africa and the world. The country’s ongoing unrest will likely have wide-reaching consequences. Sudan’s geopolitical importance cannot be overstated. The country’s stability is crucial not only for the region but for global economic and security interests. The world must pay close attention to the developments in Sudan.
Regional Instability due to Strategic Location
Sudan’s strategic location in Northeast Africa makes it a key player in the region. Along with its proximity to the Red Sea which is a crucial international trade route. The overthrow of President Omar al-Bashir in 2019 left a power vacuum. Competing factions now vie for control, and neighboring countries like Egypt and Ethiopia are eager to influence Sudan’s political future. This power struggle could lead to increased regional instability.
Impact on Counterterrorism
Sudan was once a crucial partner in African counterterrorism efforts. The current crisis threatens to weaken these initiatives. Instability in Sudan may allow extremist groups to exploit the situation, posing a risk to the broader region’s security.
Refugee Crisis
The conflict in Sudan has sparked fears of mass migration. Millions may flee the country, seeking refuge in neighboring nations. This movement could strain already overburdened refugee camps and increase tensions between host communities and new arrivals.
Global Economic Implications
Sudan is one of Africa’s top oil producers. The ongoing unrest could disrupt oil production, impacting global commodity markets. A significant disruption might lead to higher petrol prices worldwide, contributing to rising inflation rates.
Way Forward for the Crisis in Sudan
Sudan needs immediate international intervention to prevent further collapse. The global community should push for a ceasefire and facilitate dialogue between the warring factions. Humanitarian aid must be increased to address the growing crisis and support displaced populations.
Regional powers should work together to stabilise Sudan, while global powers must ensure that sanctions and diplomatic pressure lead to constructive negotiations, not further escalation. Supporting local peacebuilding initiatives is crucial for long-term stability. Sudan’s future depends on coordinated efforts to restore peace, address humanitarian needs, and rebuild the nation’s institutions.