A newly revealed secret document from the US government warns that China could quickly destroy American fighter jets, major ships and key satellites in a Taiwan conflict. The “Overmatch Brief” says China’s cheaper and more advanced weapons could overpower the US military, which still depends on larger, more vulnerable and costly systems.
Rising Fears After Secret Document Warns of Pentagon Weakness
Senior national security officials reportedly received the secret document in 2021. One official who saw it said he became visibly shaken, noting that the analysis showed China could weaken or cancel out almost every major advantage the US believed it had.
According to the secret document, US forces may struggle in key areas if a conflict breaks out near Taiwan. China has built a military strategy centered around fast-moving missiles, cyber tools and drones that can overwhelm slower American systems. The brief states that China would likely be able to destroy many US fighter planes at their bases before they even take off. The analysis also suggests that China could sink important American naval ships early in a conflict.
The secret document highlights that the US military relies on a small number of very costly weapons — such as advanced fighter jets and huge aircraft carriers — while China produces many cheaper but still highly advanced weapons. Losing even a few US assets early could collapse the entire battle plan.
The secret document gives an example of the newest American Ford-class aircraft carriers. Building these ships takes billions of dollars and many years. In simulated war games, the brief shows that China’s long-range missiles often destroy these carriers quickly. Despite this, the US Navy still plans to build more of them in the coming decades.
Cyber Threats and Supply Chain Weaknesses in Secret Document
The leaked secret document also warns that China has already gained dangerous access to parts of America’s critical infrastructure. A China-linked hacking group has reportedly placed malware inside computer networks that support electric grids, water systems and communications near American military bases.
This malware could make it difficult for the US to send troops or equipment to the Pacific during a crisis. It could also impact civilians if the hackers decide to shut down essential services at the same time as a military attack.
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The secret document points out that many US supply chains are fragile. The military relies on long shipping routes, imported parts and complex manufacturing networks. If China blocks or disrupts these systems, the US could run out of needed equipment much faster than China.
Officials who reviewed the secret document said they grew concerned that the US has not prepared for a large-scale conflict with a superpower that has built multiple layers of backup systems. China has planned redundancies — meaning if one system fails, another will immediately take its place. This makes it far harder for the US to weaken China’s operations.
Tensions Rising as China Repeats Warning on Taiwan
The leaked assessment comes at a time when China has repeatedly warned other nations not to interfere in the Taiwan issue. China continues to insist that Taiwan is part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to take control of the island.
Taiwan’s government strongly rejects China’s claim and says the island’s future can only be decided by its 23 million people. Leaders in Taiwan have stated clearly that a “return” to mainland control is not an option.
Regional tensions have also grown as nearby countries strengthen their defenses. Japan recently signaled that it may place missiles on one of its islands close to Taiwan, which drew strong reactions from China. Chinese officials have emphasized that they have the determination and the capability to stop any foreign involvement.
This secret document adds another layer to the growing unease. It shows that US planners are deeply worried that the United States may not be ready for the type of modern, high-tech conflict China could launch.