Shocking Advances: Aleppo and Hama Fall
In a startling series of events, Syrian rebels led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group have captured Aleppo and Hama, marking a dramatic shift in Syria’s ongoing conflict. Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city and a key stronghold for President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, fell quickly after the rebels launched their “Deterring the Aggression” offensive on November 27. Just days later, Hama, a crucial transit hub, also succumbed to rebel control, raising concerns for Turkey, which has historically backed opposition groups in the region.
These losses represent some of the most significant setbacks for Assad’s forces in years. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA), long supported by Russian airpower and Iran-backed militias like Hezbollah, retreated rapidly. The rebels are now advancing toward Homs, a strategic city in central Syria, threatening to dismantle the government’s hold on the region. Turkey, which has sought to maintain influence over northern Syria, now faces challenges in managing the escalating instability.
The speed and scale of these gains have exposed critical weaknesses in Assad’s military strategy and reliance on external support. This unexpected turn has left the regime scrambling to defend its remaining strongholds, as battles intensify in both the north and south of the country. Turkey, caught between supporting opposition factions and managing its geopolitical priorities, finds itself in an increasingly precarious position.
Turkey’s Diminishing Control
Turkey, a key player in the Syrian conflict, finds itself in an increasingly precarious position. Ankara has historically backed opposition groups, including factions aligned with HTS, to counter Assad’s regime and curb Kurdish influence near its border. It is likely that Turkey approved the initial offensive, anticipating modest success to pressure Assad into negotiations and expand opposition-controlled areas for Syrian refugee returns.
However, the scale of HTS’s success appears to have caught Turkey off guard. HTS not only captured Aleppo and Hama but also moved independently toward consolidating power, sidelining Ankara’s influence. The group has called for reconciliation among rebel factions and has set its own agenda, highlighting Turkey’s diminishing control over its allies.
This situation complicates Turkey’s broader goals in Syria. While Ankara has prioritized preventing a Kurdish buildup near its southern border, the instability caused by HTS’s unchecked advance risks undermining its efforts to establish a controlled buffer zone. It also poses challenges for Turkey’s relations with Russia, which supports Assad, and the United States, which backs the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the east.
Broader Impact on Syria and the Region
The rebel gains have reignited fighting across Syria, disrupting a fragile status quo. In the south, former opposition groups and local militias have united under the “Southern Operations Room,” renewing resistance in areas like Suwayda. Meanwhile, in the east, U.S.-backed SDF forces continue battling ISIS remnants, but they face challenges from increased militant activity and the reduced presence of Syrian government forces.
HTS, now the dominant rebel force, has sought to establish itself as a governing authority in areas under its control. The group has focused on delivering services and extending outreach to minority communities, promising inclusivity for those rejecting Assad. However, its past as an Al-Qaeda affiliate and its record of human rights abuses, including arbitrary detentions and repression of dissent, raise significant concerns.
The Assad regime’s traditional allies, Russia and Iran, have provided only limited support during this crisis. Russia, distracted by other conflicts, has not stepped in significantly to bolster Assad’s forces. Iran’s influence in Syria has been weakened by repeated Israeli airstrikes targeting its forces and supply routes. Hezbollah, too, has been unable to mobilize significant reinforcements due to leadership losses and ongoing instability in Lebanon.
These limitations have left Assad vulnerable. Despite small reinforcements from pro-Iran militias in Iraq, no large-scale support has materialized to counter the rebel advance. With battles now nearing Homs, the regime faces its weakest position since the early years of the war.
Shifting Geopolitical Landscape
The rapid territorial gains by HTS have sent shockwaves through the region, reshaping alliances and raising questions about the future of Syria’s fractured map. While HTS has made efforts to govern effectively, its growing power alarms both Assad’s allies and international actors like the United States and Israel, who fear a full takeover by a group with a controversial past.
The loss of Aleppo and Hama, combined with the regime’s inability to mount a swift counteroffensive, underscores the fragile nature of Assad’s control. Rebel forces, emboldened by their victories, continue to push southward, potentially threatening the regime’s heartland. Meanwhile, regional and global actors remain uncertain about how to navigate the rapidly changing dynamics in Syria.
With key cities like Homs now under threat, the conflict is entering a new and volatile phase, disrupting years of stalemated battles and raising the stakes for all involved.