Japan Seeks Reassurance from the U.S
With Donald Trump back in the White House, Japan has wasted no time seeking confirmation of U.S. security commitments in the East China Sea. The Japanese government is particularly concerned about the disputed Senkaku Islands, which China also claims and refers to as the Diaoyu Islands.
Japan’s Defense Minister Gen Nakatani held talks with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to confirm that the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty still covers the islands. The treaty obligates the United States to defend Japan if its territories come under attack. Although such confirmations are routine when a new U.S. administration takes office, experts believe Tokyo is more anxious this time due to Trump’s “America First” approach.
Rising Tensions Over the Senkaku Islands
China has been increasing its presence in the waters near the Senkaku Islands in recent years. In 2024, Chinese ships patrolled just outside Japan’s territorial waters for 353 days, entering Japanese waters 39 times. Analysts believe China’s strategy is to gradually weaken Japan’s control over the region.
While the United States has reaffirmed its support, concerns remain in Tokyo about whether the U.S. would actually respond with force if Beijing escalates its claims. Trump has shown a transactional approach to international relations, often prioritizing U.S. economic interests over long-standing alliances. This has left Japanese officials uncertain about the future of their security partnership.
Japan Strengthens Diplomatic and Military Ties
After receiving verbal assurances from Hegseth, Japan announced that both countries would strengthen their broader security alliance. Japan is also increasing diplomatic efforts to maintain strong ties with the U.S., especially since Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba lacks the personal relationship with Trump that former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe enjoyed.
Experts note that Japan has little bargaining power and must rely on U.S. military support due to its strategic location in a region facing threats from China, North Korea, and Russia. Japan is also preparing for the possibility that Trump may demand higher payments for the 54,000 U.S. troops stationed in Japan.
The Cost of U.S. Protection
During Trump’s first term, he demanded that Japan quadruple its payment for hosting U.S. forces. Under a 2022 agreement, Japan agreed to pay $8.6 billion annually, but this deal expires in 2027. Many expect Trump to push for an even higher amount.
Additionally, Trump is likely to pressure Japan to increase its defense spending to 5% of GDP. Currently, Japan spends less than 2%, while the U.S. spends around 3.4% of its GDP on the military. Japan has been gradually increasing its defense budget, but reaching 5% would require a massive jump in military spending.
China’s Uncertainty and Regional Impact
While Japan remains cautious, China is also uncertain about how to navigate its relationship with Trump. Some analysts believe that Beijing may ease tensions with Tokyo to avoid escalating conflicts in multiple areas. At the same time, China has continued to strengthen its military presence in the East China Sea and has been vocal about its territorial claims.
Japan’s regional security concerns extend beyond the Senkaku Islands. North Korea’s continued ballistic missile tests, Russia’s military activities, and fears that China may use force to take Taiwan all contribute to Japan’s need for strong U.S. support.
Looking Ahead: A Balancing Act
Japan’s leadership faces a difficult challenge. On one hand, it must maintain good relations with the U.S., ensuring that America remains committed to its defense. On the other hand, Tokyo must prepare for possible changes in U.S. foreign policy under Trump.
The coming months will be crucial in determining how the Japan-U.S. alliance evolves. While Japan continues to strengthen its military capabilities, it remains heavily reliant on the U.S. security umbrella. The question now is whether Trump will see Japan’s security as a strategic priority or a burden requiring further negotiations.
