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The Syrian civil war, now in its 13th year, has recently taken a dramatic turn. Syrian opposition forces, led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have made a stunning push in northern Syria. In a matter of days, they managed to take control of most of Aleppo, Syria’s once thriving economic capital, dealing a significant blow to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This unexpected advance has brought the long-standing conflict back into the spotlight.
The Roots of the Conflict
The roots of Syria’s civil war go back to 2011, when peaceful protests against President Assad’s government erupted. These protests were part of the wider Arab Spring movement, which sought democratic reforms across the Middle East. Assad, who inherited the presidency from his father, Hafez al-Assad, in 2000, is a member of the Alawite sect, a minority group that follows a branch of Shiite Islam. The majority of Syrians, however, are Sunni Muslims.
The protests began in the southern city of Daraa but spread quickly across the country. While the demonstrations were mostly peaceful, the government responded with violent crackdowns, including shelling civilian areas and arresting large numbers of people. As the violence escalated, some Syrians began arming themselves to fight back, and various rebel groups emerged, including Islamist militants, some of whom had fought U.S. troops in Iraq.
The UN deemed the conflict to be a full-fledged civil war by 2012. The conflict turned the country into a battleground, with government forces fighting various rebel factions. In the years that followed, foreign powers, including Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, came to Assad’s aid, helping him regain control of much of the country. Despite this, the country remained divided, with opposition groups controlling certain areas, especially in the north and northwest.
The HTS-Led Rebel Push
Recently, after years of relatively calm fighting, the Syrian opposition has launched a sudden offensive, led by HTS and other rebel groups, including the Syrian National Army (SNA). The conflict had flared up earlier this year with increased clashes between government forces and insurgents, particularly in Aleppo. HTS has now gained significant ground, taking over much of the city and even threatening to push further south toward Hama.
Aleppo, once Syria’s largest and most prosperous city, was severely damaged during the war. After many of its residents fled to other areas, including the capital Damascus, the city became a focal point of fighting between government forces and rebels. Over the years, the government managed to regain control of large parts of the city, but pockets of opposition fighters remained in the countryside.
The most recent wave of fighting began when opposition forces seized a government base in western Aleppo in late November. This was followed by a rapid advance, and by the weekend, much of Aleppo had fallen into rebel hands. The rebels are now moving southward, with Hama in their sights. It remains uncertain whether they will be able to hold these territories or if the Syrian military will launch a counterattack to regain control.
Who Are the Rebels?
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the leading force in the recent assault, is a militant group based in Syria’s Idlib province, near the Turkish border. It is the successor of the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and is now a more localized faction. HTS, once closely linked to al-Qaeda, has since severed its ties with the global jihadist network and now focuses on establishing Islamic rule in Syria.
HTS has long controlled the Bab al-Hawa crossing between Syria and Turkey, a vital point for the delivery of aid and military supplies. In addition to HTS, the Syrian National Army (SNA), a loose coalition of rebel forces supported by Turkey, has also been involved in the current offensive. The SNA includes fighters from the Free Syrian Army, which was one of the earliest rebel groups to form after the war began.
HTS and SNA Unite Against Assad Amid Diminished Support
Despite their differences, both HTS and SNA share the goal of overthrowing Assad’s government. While HTS aims to establish a more Islamic form of governance, it has recently made statements promising to protect religious and cultural sites in Aleppo, including churches, which may be an attempt to appeal to local communities.
The rebels launched their offensive at a time when Assad’s allies, including Russia, Hezbollah, and Iran, face distractions from other crises. Russia has focused its efforts on the war in Ukraine, while Hezbollah and Iran have become embroiled in conflicts involving Israel and Hamas. This has left Assad’s regime particularly vulnerable, as these allies have been unable to provide the same level of support as they did in earlier years.
Why Now?
The timing of the rebel offensive appears to be connected to a mix of strategic opportunity and changing geopolitical circumstances. Analysts suggest that opposition groups have spent years reorganizing, rearming, and retraining for an opportunity like this. Assad’s weakening position, combined with the distraction of his allies, has provided the rebels with a rare chance to strike.
The change in Syria’s power dynamics has taken many by surprise. While it is unclear whether the rebels will be able to hold on to the territory they have captured, their success in Aleppo has sent a strong message to Assad’s government. The fighting has not only redrawn the front lines of the war but also threatened to further destabilize a country that has already suffered immense destruction.
As the battle for Aleppo continues, Syria’s civil war remains as complex and bloody as ever, with no clear path to peace in sight. For now, the world watches as the rebels push forward, seeking to expand their control and challenge the entrenched authority of President Assad.