Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has raised serious concerns about Russia’s next move.
Zelensky’s Alarm at Three Seas Summit
He issued a warning during the April 29 Three Seas Summit that Russia might be preparing a military strike while posing as Belarus during joint drills. These military drills are scheduled for the summer and are officially referred to as Zapad 2025 (West 2025).
Zelensky made his warning clear by saying, “This is how Russia usually starts its attacks. First, they call it an exercise, and then they launch a real strike.” He pointed to past patterns where Russian military exercises were later followed by actual attacks. Although Zelensky didn’t specify exactly where the new threat might land, he listed Ukraine, Lithuania, and Poland as possible targets.
He added, “God forbid! But we must be prepared.” Zelensky also assured that Ukraine is open to working with other countries and institutions to respond to any possible threat from Russia.
These comments highlight rising tensions in Eastern Europe. Belarus, Russia’s close ally, shares borders with NATO countries such as Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, as well as Ukraine. That makes its location very important from a military point of view. While Belarus has not directly joined the war against Ukraine, it has allowed Russian troops and missiles to stay on its land. This support has already raised alarm bells across Europe.
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Zapad Military Drills: More Than Just Practice?
Zapad is not a new event. It is a long-standing series of large-scale military drills conducted by Russia and Belarus every two years since 2009. The last time these drills took place—Zapad 2021—over 200,000 soldiers participated. That massive show of force happened just a few months before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Later, numerous experts noted that the exercises assisted Russia in covertly getting ready for the invasion.
The next edition, Zapad 2025, is expected to follow a similar format. While it is officially being described as a training exercise, Ukrainian military officials are deeply suspicious. They believe that Russia might use the event to secretly move troops, weapons, and equipment closer to its borders with NATO countries.
Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, added to the warning. On April 9, he explained that these exercises could help Russia quietly build up forces for a new offensive. “All exercises have a purpose,” he said. “One of those purposes is to quietly create large groups of troops. These groups can later be used in real attacks.”
Syrskyi pointed out that the cover of an exercise allows Russia to move soldiers and weapons without drawing too much attention. That’s why many in Ukraine and the West believe that Zapad 2025 could be more than just a drill.
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Fears of Escalation Beyond Ukraine
This is not the first time President Zelensky has sounded the alarm. Back in February, while speaking at the Munich Security Conference, he said that Russia might be planning something even bigger. According to intelligence sources, Russia might be preparing to station up to 150,000 troops in Belarus. That would be one of the largest troop movements in the region since the start of the war in Ukraine.
Zelensky shared his fears openly. He stated, “I believe he (Putin) is preparing for a war against NATO countries in 2026 based on all the information I’ve gathered.” He also admitted that this prediction was not certain but insisted that the signs were worrying.
These warnings are not just coming from Ukraine. Western intelligence agencies have also said that Russia is becoming more aggressive and better armed. After launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has increased its military spending and troop levels. It has also carried out more military drills near NATO borders.
Belarus plays a central role in these concerns. Although it has not declared war, it has allowed Russia to use its land and resources. With missiles and soldiers already stationed in Belarus, any new build-up—like the one expected during Zapad 2025—makes the situation even more serious.
Many European leaders are closely watching what happens in Belarus this summer. For Ukraine, Lithuania, and Poland—countries that are near or share borders with Belarus—this warning could mean staying alert for sudden changes.
President Zelensky’s message was clear: don’t be fooled by labels like “military drills.” These exercises, especially when carried out by Russia, could be the beginning of something much more dangerous.