The Chinese military has conducted two-day joint combat readiness patrols in the contested South China Sea. This marked the first such patrol of the year, heightening tensions with the Philippines and other regional stakeholders. The patrols, carried out by the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) naval and air forces, coincided with joint military exercises by the United States and the Philippines.
China stated that the patrols aim to maintain peace and stability in the region. However, the presence of Chinese vessels and aircraft near contested waters continues to provoke strong reactions.
Strategic Timing Amid Geopolitical Changes
The patrols came just days before Donald Trump’s second term as U.S. president. Analysts suggest Trump’s return could influence the dynamics in the South China Sea, particularly as tensions between China and the Philippines remain high.
Adding to the complexity, the Philippines has been upgrading infrastructure on Thitu Island in the Spratly Islands, drawing criticism from China. The Spratlys are claimed by both nations, along with several other Southeast Asian countries.
Manila Pushes Back
The Philippines has responded forcefully to recent Chinese activities. Manila lodged protests against what it termed “provocative actions” by the Chinese coastguard near Scarborough Shoal. Reports cited the presence of China’s largest coastguard vessel, a 12,000-tonne ship, along with other vessels and aircraft, in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.
The Philippines has also accused China of escalating tensions through regular patrols and militarization of disputed features. This comes as Manila continues to assert its claims, supported by increased collaboration with the United States.
Historical Disputes and Rising Risks
The South China Sea has long been a flashpoint for territorial disputes. China claims nearly all of the resource-rich waterway, while the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei assert overlapping claims.
Recent months have seen an uptick in military activities. Last November, the PLA conducted patrols near Scarborough Shoal in response to Philippine actions. Earlier in 2023, joint exercises involving the Philippines, the U.S., Japan, and Australia further heightened regional tensions. Observers warn that the increasing presence of military forces from multiple nations raises the risk of accidental clashes.
Competing Claims and Infrastructure Race
China’s activities are part of a broader effort to solidify its claims through military patrols, land reclamation, and infrastructure development. Meanwhile, Vietnam and the Philippines have also ramped up their efforts in the contested waters.
Vietnam has expanded land reclamation projects and deployed defensive infrastructure on the features it controls. The Philippines, too, has bolstered troop deployments in key areas and pursued construction projects on contested islands.
Call for Dialogue and Cooperation
Despite the rising tensions, experts suggest that dialogue remains possible. China has expressed interest in working with other nations to negotiate a South China Sea Code of Conduct. This initiative aims to manage disputes and explore opportunities for joint development.
ASEAN nations, including the Philippines, continue to engage in discussions with China. However, achieving consensus has been challenging, given the overlapping claims and strategic interests of major powers like the U.S.
A Region on Edge
As 2024 unfolds, the South China Sea remains a volatile arena for geopolitical rivalries. With the return of Trump and ongoing territorial disputes, the stakes are higher than ever. Both regional and global players must navigate these challenges carefully to avoid unintended conflict and preserve peace in one of the world’s most critical waterways.
Future Outlook: Navigating a Delicate Balance
The South China Sea remains a region fraught with challenges, where diplomacy and deterrence must coexist. As Beijing, Manila, and other nations assert their claims, the need for multilateral cooperation grows increasingly urgent. While initiatives like the South China Sea Code of Conduct provide a framework for dialogue, meaningful progress will require genuine commitment from all parties. The involvement of global powers like the United States adds another layer of complexity, emphasizing the critical importance of fostering stability and avoiding actions that could further destabilize the region. The months ahead will test the resilience of diplomatic channels and the resolve of nations to prioritize peace over escalation.
