South Korea is facing a tough choice: Should it pursue its own nuclear weapons or stick with its current strategy of relying on U.S. support? This debate comes as tensions with North Korea continue to escalate. And former U.S. President Donald Trump’s possible return adds another layer of complexity.
Growing Calls for Nuclear Weapons in South Korea
Recently, some South Korean officials and members of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s ruling party have called for South Korea to develop its own nuclear arsenal. They believe this could help deter North Korea. Which has been rapidly expanding its own nuclear and missile capabilities. The idea has gained traction, especially with Trump’s potential return. As he has previously criticised the cost of the U.S. military presence in South Korea.
Risks of South Korea Going Nuclear
Defence Minister Shin Won-sik, a former army general and member of Yoon’s party, has voiced strong opposition to developing nuclear weapons. He warns that it could severely damage South Korea’s diplomatic relations and economy. Shin compares the potential fallout to the stock market crash known as Black Monday. This saw significant losses. According to Shin, withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) could lead to immediate financial market shocks and various penalties.
Shin believes that strengthening the existing U.S. extended deterrence—a strategy where the U.S. provides military protection. By including nuclear threats, to its allies—is the best and most peaceful way to address the North Korean threat.
A Shifting Global Landscape
The global stage is shifting, with increased U.S.-China rivalry and the ongoing war in Ukraine affecting international relations. South Korea finds itself in a complex position. Shin notes that North Korea’s recent strategic partnership with Russia has elevated its status from a regional issue to a global concern. Meanwhile, Russia’s involvement in Ukraine has damaged its international reputation.
South Korea has responded to these developments by considering stronger measures. For instance, it has hinted at possibly providing lethal aid to Ukraine if Russia transfers advanced weapons technology to North Korea.
North Korea’s Arms and Alliances
According to Shin, North Korea has been actively assisting Russia with military supplies. From last year until early August, North Korea reportedly sent over 12,000 containers of artillery shells and other military equipment to Russia. Although Shin has not seen evidence of North Korea assisting with advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles or nuclear technology, he remains vigilant.
South Korea has also been wary of the possibility of Russia providing North Korea with critical military technology. Shin’s focus is on preventing the transfer of advanced weaponry that could further escalate the situation.
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula
Recent weeks have seen increased tensions between North and South Korea. North Korea has protested by floating balloons filled with trash into South Korea. In response, Seoul has resumed its loudspeaker broadcasts near the border, which were stopped in 2018. These broadcasts include news and popular music, such as K-pop, which Shin describes as a form of psychological warfare.
One notable development is the defection of Ri Il Gyu, a senior North Korean diplomat based in Cuba. Additionally, Jin from the K-pop group BTS participated in the Paris Olympics’ torch relay, a move that has also drawn North Korean attention.
Looking Forward
Shin remains optimistic about the impact of South Korea’s loudspeaker broadcasts and other measures. He believes they could drive change within North Korean society and potentially contribute to denuclearisation efforts. By working with the international community, South Korea hopes to address the ongoing threats from its northern neighbor while navigating a complex global landscape.
In summary, South Korea faces a challenging decision on whether to develop its own nuclear weapons or rely on the existing U.S. protection. The decision will have significant implications for its diplomatic relations, economic stability, and regional security.