The Red Sea is a vital maritime route, playing a central role in global trade. Through this the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean are connected. It is an essential choke point that connects East Africa, Asia, and Europe. The southern part of the Red Sea features the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The strait is only about 20 miles wide. This narrow passage is one of the world’s most important chokepoints for international shipping.
Around 12% of global trade flows through the Red Sea, including 30% of global container traffic. This makes it essential for transporting goods such as oil, electronics, and consumer products. Any disruptions here can lead to significant delays and increased costs for global trade.
Ongoing Crisis in the Red Sea
The ongoing crisis in the Red Sea is a significant concern for global trade and energy markets. The combination of Houthi attacks, increased insurance costs, and shipping delays highlights the broader implications of this conflict on international commerce and stability.
Escalation of Houthi Attacks in Red Sea
Since mid-November, the security situation in the southern Red Sea has deteriorated significantly. The Houthi rebels, who control parts of western Yemen, have intensified their attacks on commercial shipping in this region. They have employed various tactics, including drone and missile strikes, as well as boarding attempts on ships. The situation escalated with the successful hijacking of the tanker Galaxy Leader in mid-November, which was captured and filmed by the rebels.
Impact on Global Shipping
The increased attacks have forced major shipping companies like Maersk, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd to reroute their vessels or suspend operations in the Red Sea. These changes have led to longer transit times. Some ships are now detouring around the Cape of Good Hope, extending their journeys by up to two weeks. This diversion increases shipping costs and delivery times, affecting global supply chains. This in turn affects the consumer as the prices inflate.
Economic Consequences
The crisis has had immediate economic impacts. BP has halted all oil and gas shipments through the Red Sea, leading to higher oil prices. Insurance premiums for shipping in the region have surged, reflecting the increased risk. Analysts predict that continued attacks could further disrupt global trade and drive up energy costs. As more companies might choose to avoid the Red Sea route altogether.
US Response to the Red Sea Crisis
The US response to the Red Sea crisis involves multiple strategies, from counter-terrorism to diplomatic maneuvers. While aimed at mitigating immediate threats to shipping, these actions also reflect broader geopolitical and economic objectives.
Designating the Houthis as Terrorists
To curb the Houthis’ financial support, the US has designated them as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist. This move aims to cut off their funding and restrict their access to global financial networks. The US has also imposed sanctions on entities that help Iran fund the Houthis. If the Houthis halt their attacks, the US will reconsider their designation.
Operation Prosperity Guardian
In December, the US launched Operation Prosperity Guardian. This coalition, including over 20 nations, aims to protect shipping in the Red Sea. The coalition’s mission is to defend commercial vessels and deter further Houthi attacks. In January, the US and 13 allies warned the Houthis of potential consequences if their attacks continued. The UN Security Council also passed a resolution demanding the Houthis stop targeting merchant vessels.
Diversion from Gaza Controversy
Some argue that the US is using the Red Sea crisis to shift attention from its controversial stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict. The US has faced criticism for its support of Israel’s actions in Gaza. By focusing on the Red Sea, the US aims to deflect global pressure and maintain its global leadership role. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s frequent visits to the Middle East since October highlight the US’s sensitivity to international criticism.
Re-mobilising European Allies
Another motive for US involvement could be to strengthen ties with European allies. Recent tensions over the Gaza conflict have strained US relations with Europe and the Arab world. Arab nations, including Egypt and Jordan, have criticized US support for Israel. European countries are also divided on the issue. The US sees the Red Sea crisis as a way to unify its allies and address these growing divisions. However, the coalition’s success has been mixed, with limited participation from European and Arab countries.
Strengthening Maritime Control and Global Trade in Red Sea
The US aims to enhance its control over critical maritime chokepoints, such as the Bab el-Mandeb strait. This aligns with its broader strategy to ensure freedom of navigation in the Middle East. The US National Security Strategy emphasizes preventing any foreign power from threatening these vital sea routes. Controlling the Red Sea could also weaken trade between China and Europe, aligning with US strategic interests in countering China’s influence.
The ongoing crisis in the Red Sea has significant implications for global trade. Increased insurance premiums and rerouted shipping routes are driving up costs and delays. By heightening the crisis, the US may be influencing trade patterns and economic relations between China and Europe. The US’s actions in the Red Sea could be seen as a strategic move to gain an upper hand in global economic competition.
Arab Countries Opting Out of the Red Sea Coalition
Arab countries have opted out of the Red Sea coalition due to a combination of reluctance to engage in further conflict, dissatisfaction with US policies, national security priorities, and a desire to assert strategic independence. Their absence from the coalition reflects deeper issues within the region and highlights the challenges of aligning diverse national interests with international security efforts.
Absence of Arab Nations in the Coalition
The newly formed coalition to protect shipping in the Red Sea has notably excluded many Arab countries. Led by the US, the coalition includes the UK, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Seychelles, and Bahrain, the only Arab Gulf state involved. Analysts suggest that Arab nations are hesitant to confront the Yemeni Houthi rebels directly.
Reluctance to Engage in Conflict
Arab nations are hesitant to join the coalition, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group notes that these countries are wary of engaging in further conflict with the Houthis. Saudi Arabia is currently negotiating with the Houthis and joining the coalition could jeopardize these talks. Saudi Arabia, in particular, is focused on exiting the Yemeni conflict rather than deepening its involvement.
Discontent with the US
There is significant discontent among Arab states with US policies. Ibrahim Jalal from the Middle East Institute highlights a crisis of confidence between the US and its strategic partners. The US’s handling of the Israel-Palestine issue has strained relations. Arab countries do not want to be seen as defending Israel, which could further damage their domestic and regional standing.
National Priorities and Security Concerns
Saudi Arabia and the UAE face their own security concerns, including the threat of cross-border attacks by the Houthis. These nations prioritize their national security and have reservations about aligning too closely with US-led initiatives. Both countries prefer to handle the situation in a manner that aligns with their own strategic interests, rather than acting in support of US objectives.
Desire for Strategic Independence in Red Sea region
Arab countries are also keen to assert their strategic independence. By staying out of the coalition, they signal their unwillingness to be seen as merely following US directives. This move allows them to maintain a degree of autonomy in their foreign and defense policies, showing that they are not fully aligned with US positions or reactions in the region.
The Role of the Combined Maritime Forces
Saudi Arabia remains part of the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), a 38-nation partnership led by the US, while the UAE withdrew from the CMF earlier this year. This ongoing participation shows that while there is cooperation, it is more about maintaining a balanced approach rather than deep involvement in the new coalition.
Perceived Ineffectiveness of the Coalition
Some analysts, like Ibrahim Jalal, view the coalition as a cosmetic measure rather than a strategic fix. The coalition’s formation is seen as a recognition of the failures in managing regional security. Jalal advocates for a more collaborative regional approach, suggesting that local solutions may be more effective than large international coalitions.
The exclusion of major Arab powers reflects broader regional dynamics. The Red Sea crisis highlights divisions over regional policies, particularly the US’s approach to Israel and its influence in the Middle East. The lack of Arab participation underscores the complex balance of interests and the sensitivity of regional politics.