NATO believes that Russia can keep fighting in Ukraine for at least three more years. This information was shared by a senior NATO official with the BBC’s Russian service. The official spoke during a NATO summit held in The Hague.
NATO Says Russia Has Enough Resources to Continue the War
Despite facing economic problems at home, Russia appears to have enough money and resources to support its military actions. NATO’s estimate shows that the Kremlin could continue its war efforts until 2027.
The defense alliance also noted that Russia’s defense factories are working at full speed. But there is little room left to increase the production of weapons and military supplies. This means Russia is using its full capacity already.
NATO also believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be receiving wrong or incomplete information from his intelligence services. This may explain his strong belief that Russia is winning the war. According to the NATO official, these reports could be giving Putin a false picture of the battlefield.
So far, talks led by the United States to end the war have not led to any major results. The NATO official added that Putin is only interested in making short-term deals that benefit Russia. Long-term peace efforts seem to have made no progress.
Ukraine Faces Manpower Issues as Russia Pushes On
The senior NATO official also said that Ukraine’s military is facing serious manpower shortages. This issue has been mentioned in recent speeches by Putin as well. According to the official, how serious this shortage becomes will depend on the steps Ukraine takes to fix the situation.
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In April this year, a military expert from the Institute for the Study of War, George Barros, had predicted something different. He said Russia might only be able to continue the war at the current level for 12 to 16 months due to financial and manpower limits.
But NATO’s new analysis suggests a much longer timeline for Russia’s war effort. The coalition claims that Russia has managed to continue fighting and stretch its resources.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is left struggling with fewer soldiers and fewer supplies. The situation is getting more difficult for the country’s armed forces as the conflict continues.
Russia’s Economy Under Pressure Despite War Spending
While Russia is keeping the war going, its economy is under visible stress. On Tuesday, President Putin signed new changes to the federal budget for 2025. These changes reveal growing financial problems.
Russia now anticipates a 25% decrease in oil and gas revenue compared to its initial projections. The government mostly receives its funding from these transactions. Revenue from oil and gas has been reduced from 10.8 trillion rubles (about $140.4 billion) to 8.3 trillion rubles (around $107.9 billion).
Because of this drop in income, Russia’s budget deficit is also growing. The country now expects a deficit of 3.8 trillion rubles (around $49.4 billion). This is more than three times higher than the earlier estimate of 1.2 trillion rubles (about $15.6 billion).
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To make up for this shortfall, Russia’s Finance Ministry is using money from the National Wealth Fund (NWF). This fund helps balance the budget when oil prices fall below a certain level. Currently, the fund supports the budget if Russian oil sells below $60 per barrel. However, there are plans to lower this price limit to $50 in 2025.
As of early June, there were only 2.8 trillion rubles (around $36.4 billion) left in the NWF. In the past two years, the size of this fund has dropped by two-thirds in dollar terms. In 2022, the fund held $113.5 billion. By 2024, that amount had fallen to just $37.4 billion.
Economists from a top Russian research institute have warned that the NWF could run out by 2026 if global oil and gas prices remain low. These experts are from the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA).
