The JCPOA: From Agreement to Crisis
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed in 2015 as a landmark deal between Iran and the P5+1 Europe’s nations (the U.S., UK, France, China, Russia, and Germany). The agreement aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear activities in return for lifting international sanctions.
The deal began to unravel in 2018 when the U.S., under Donald Trump, unilaterally withdrew and re-imposed sanctions. This “maximum pressure” campaign severely impacted Iran’s economy. Despite Europe’s initial condemnation of the U.S. withdrawal, it failed to shield Iran from the sanctions’ effects.
Iran upheld its commitments to the JCPOA for a time, even after the U.S. exit. In 2020, it began scaling back its compliance when European nations sided with Washington in pressuring Tehran.
IAEA Censure Deepens the Divide
On November 21, 2024, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passed a resolution censuring Iran. This was the fifth such resolution targeting Tehran for alleged non-compliance with the JCPOA. The resolution, led by the European Troika (UK, France, and Germany), called for increased cooperation and access for inspectors.
The critics argue these measures ignore the West’s failure to uphold its end of the agreement. Iran now faces more sanctions than before the JCPOA, with its economy struggling under intense pressure. The latest resolution is seen as a precursor to activating the “snap-back” mechanism, which would reinstate crippling UN sanctions against Iran.
Iran’s Response to Renewed Pressure
Despite preemptively capping its stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium and allowing additional IAEA inspectors, Iran faced the resolution. This has fueled growing frustration in Tehran, where officials have announced retaliatory measures. These include deploying advanced centrifuges and expanding uranium enrichment capabilities.
The resolution has also triggered a public and political debate in Iran. Many Iranians now question the value of engaging with the IAEA or remaining part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
The Snap-Back Mechanism and Its Risks
The snap-back mechanism, part of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, allows the JCPOA signatories to reinstate UN sanctions if Iran is deemed non-compliant. The mechanism lacks a reciprocal measure to hold Western nations accountable for their obligations.
Iran has warned that activating the snap-back mechanism would lead to its withdrawal from the NPT. This treaty, aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, has been central to global nuclear diplomacy. An Iranian exit could escalate tensions and destabilize the Middle East further.
Growing Skepticism Among Iranians
Ordinary Iranians and leaders alike are questioning the value of continued cooperation with international bodies like the IAEA. Many feel that Iran faces pressure regardless of its actions. While sanctions have crushed the economy, cooperation has not brought the promised relief.
Calls for leaving the NPT, once a fringe idea, are gaining support among Iranians. Some argue that such a move might strengthen Iran’s security against perceived Western aggression.
Europe’s Dual Strategy: A Risky Gamble
European nations have adopted a dual strategy of pressuring Iran while ignoring their commitments to the JCPOA. This approach risks backfiring. If Iran leaves the NPT, it could derail any chance of future negotiations on its nuclear program.
Tehran’s patience is wearing thin. Officials have repeatedly emphasized that borderlines are being crossed. Europe’s actions may push Iran beyond a point of no return, with consequences that extend far beyond diplomacy.
The Road Ahead
The IAEA resolution has brought the JCPOA to its most precarious state yet. As Iran considers its options, global powers face mounting uncertainty. Efforts to bring Iran back to compliance will require a renewed focus on trust-building and fairness. Without urgent action, the world could witness an irreversible breakdown of nuclear diplomacy, escalating tensions in an already fragile region.