The fall of the Assad regime in Syria in December brought hopes for a better future among the people. However, these hopes are now fading as the country faces major economic challenges.
Impact of Sanctions on Syria’s Economy
The US has maintained strict economic sanctions against Syria, which is making it difficult for the country to recover. These sanctions were originally imposed to target the Assad regime, but they are now preventing much-needed financial aid from reaching the people. The sanctions are also blocking funds from countries like Turkey and Qatar, which were expected to help rebuild Syria’s damaged infrastructure.
The Syrian economic crisis has worsened due to massive losses suffered during the civil war that lasted from 2011 to 2024. According to the UN Development Programme (UNDP), Syria lost around $800 billion during this period. The conflict has more than halved the country’s gross domestic product. As a result, poverty has risen sharply, with 90% of the population now living below the poverty line. Extreme poverty has surged to 66%, making basic necessities like food, water, and electricity difficult to access.
The war has left nearly one-third of Syria’s housing units destroyed or severely damaged. This has forced around 5.7 million people to live without proper shelter. The destruction of infrastructure has also affected water supply systems. More than half of Syria’s water treatment plants and sewer systems are either damaged or non-operational, leaving about 14 million people without clean water and sanitation. The country’s energy sector is also in crisis, with energy production dropping by 80% due to damage to power plants and transmission lines. These problems have worsened the living conditions of millions of Syrians.
Political Challenges in Syria
Syria’s new transitional government, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, is facing serious political challenges. After the fall of the Assad regime, many hoped that the new government would bring stability and unity. However, deep distrust among the country’s minority communities is making it difficult to form an inclusive government. The government’s association with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is one of the main reasons for this distrust.
HTS was originally established as al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria in 2011. Although the group broke away from al-Qaeda in 2016, it is still designated as a terrorist organisation by the United Nations Security Council. This has raised fears that the new government might impose strict Islamist rule. The minority communities, including the Druze, Kurds, and Alawites, are concerned that their rights and freedoms could be at risk under HTS-backed leadership. These fears are also tied to economic inequalities, as many minorities worry that resources will not be distributed fairly.
To address these concerns, the government tried to start a national dialogue about Syria’s political future. However, many minority leaders refused to participate, citing fears of HTS’ influence. This lack of trust has slowed down efforts to rebuild the country’s economic sectors, including agriculture, trade, and small businesses. Instead of forming an inclusive administration, the government appointed a committee of legal experts to create a constitutional framework. This move has further delayed the formation of a unified government, creating additional uncertainty for Syria’s economic recovery.
There is still no clear timeline for how long the transitional phase will last, adding to the uncertainty.
Foreign Interventions and Regional Tensions
Foreign powers are playing a crucial role in shaping Syria’s future. The Kurdish-majority northeast remains under the control of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Despite a military offensive by Turkey’s proxy Syrian National Army, the SDF has managed to maintain its hold on the region. This has created tensions between Turkey and the US, as both countries have different interests in Syria.
In the southern regions of Syria, Israel has been carrying out military interventions to prevent the transitional government from establishing control. Israel fears that the current administration might adopt anti-Israeli and Islamist policies. To counter this, Israel has been supporting the Druze community, which opposes the government. The Druze, along with the Kurds and Alawites, are pushing for a decentralised form of government that gives more autonomy to different regions of Syria. This decentralisation could reshape the economic structure of the country by allowing local authorities to manage resources independently.
The US military base at al-Tanf in eastern Syria remains a critical strategic point. This base separates Iraq and Iran in the east from Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Israel in the west. If the US withdraws from this base, it could create a power vacuum and further destabilise the region. The ongoing conflicts, combined with foreign interventions, are making it difficult for Syria to find stability and rebuild its economic foundations. The presence of multiple foreign forces is further complicating efforts to restore economic activities across the country.
Syria’s future remains uncertain as economic hardships, political distrust, and foreign interventions continue to affect the country. The lack of immediate financial aid and the failure to form an inclusive government are pushing the country towards further instability. The people of Syria continue to face immense hardships as they struggle to rebuild their lives after years of conflict.
